Unlocking credit access: A panel and SHAP analysis of SBA 504 lending across U.S counties (2010-2023)

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) 504 loan program develops economic growth and employment opportunities by extending long-term fixed-rate financing to acquire significant fixed assets for small businesses. The research studies how SBA 504 lending practices relate to important economic factors at the county level across the United States from 2010 to 2023. We combine publicly accessible SBA 504 loan information with American Community Survey (ACS) statistics about total population and median household income and poverty rate to derive four lending intensity measures at the county scale (total amount of approved loans and number of approved loans and amount of loans per capita and loans per 1000 people). The results from correlation analysis show that SBA 504 lending intensity, primarily through total amount and number of loans, demonstrates positive correlations with median household income throughout the counties. The relationship between poverty rate measures and SBA 504 lending intensity shows less consistency. This observational study cannot demonstrate causality, but its findings show that SBA 504 lending activities are related to positive economic developments within U.S. counties, which may benefit the national economy.