Impact assessment of climate change on rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency curve -Swat district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
National Institute of Urban Infrastructure Planning, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, Pakistan.
Research Article
World Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology and Sciences, 2024, 13(02), 383–389.
Article DOI: 10.30574/wjaets.2024.13.2.0590
Publication history:
Received on 21 October 2024; revised on 30 November 2024; accepted on 02 December 2024
Abstract:
When planning and constructing water infrastructure, rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are frequently utilized in design of culverts, storm drains, and flood barriers etc. However, increased greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, which influences the frequency, length, and severity of rainfall episodes. Reducing the risk of urban flooding requires adaptation to these changes. IDF curves are essential resources for catering these variables ensuring water infrastructure is economical and safe. Thus, the IDF curve in this study was developed incorporating climate projections for Swat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The rainfall projection data spans ten years from 2024–2034 under (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) SSP2-4.5. Using Gumbel distribution method the IDF curve is developed. The results of the study indicate that longer-duration rainfall episodes are less common and less severe over short return periods, under the assessed climate scenario. Rainfall intensity dramatically rises for the return period length 50, 75, and 100 years. Notably, rainfall intensity is marginally higher and more frequent for the 5-year and 10-year return periods. In order to successfully handle future flood risks, these trends can be taken into account while planning and developing water infrastructure for the Swat region.
Keywords:
Climate change; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP); IDF curve; Rainfall intensity; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)
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