An integrated modeling framework for cloud–temperature–precipitation interactions: A multidecadal analysis of the Sylhet Station

This study develops an integrated modeling framework to investigate the complex interactions between cloud cover, temperature, and rainfall in Sylhet, Bangladesh, using a 62-year dataset (1956-2017). Through statistical analysis and time-series modeling, we quantify the strength and direction of these interactions. Our findings reveal a weak positive correlation between average temperature and total rainfall (r ≈ 0.19) and a moderate positive correlation between cloud cover and rainfall (r ≈ 0.43), suggesting that cloudiness is a more direct driver of precipitation in this region. A multiple linear regression model demonstrates that while cloud cover is a significant predictor, temperature alone is not. The framework highlights the dominant role of cloud dynamics in Sylhet's hydrological cycle, with implications for improving regional climate models and rainfall forecasting.